--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  /Users/rachaelhinkle/Dropbox/ElevatorEffect/Reversals/JOP_Replication_Data/NelsonHazeltonHinkle_JOP2020_repli
> cation.log
  log type:  text
 opened on:  22 Jun 2020, 11:52:07

. 
. *** Table A.2 Summarize average number of DJs in city where there is at least one CJ
. use "sumCourthouses2010.dta", clear

. sum djnum, detail

                            djnum
-------------------------------------------------------------
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%            0              0
 5%            0              0
10%            0              0       Obs                 109
25%            0              0       Sum of Wgt.         109

50%            3                      Mean           4.513761
                        Largest       Std. Dev.      6.051652
75%            6             19
90%           11             30       Variance       36.62249
95%           15             32       Skewness       2.742387
99%           32             33       Kurtosis       12.21917

. sort circuit

. by circuit: sum djnum

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-> circuit = 1

    Variable |       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
       djnum |         6    4.833333    3.868678          1         12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-> circuit = 2

    Variable |       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
       djnum |         7    2.285714    2.870208          0          6

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-> circuit = 3

    Variable |       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
       djnum |         8         8.5    11.04536          0         33

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-> circuit = 4

    Variable |       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
       djnum |        10         2.1    2.923088          0          9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-> circuit = 5

    Variable |       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
       djnum |         8       5.125    4.155461          0         12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-> circuit = 6

    Variable |       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
       djnum |        16        4.25    4.837355          0         19

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-> circuit = 7

    Variable |       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
       djnum |         6    6.833333    11.53112          0         30

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-> circuit = 8

    Variable |       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
       djnum |        11    4.090909    3.207945          1         11

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-> circuit = 9

    Variable |       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
       djnum |        19    5.052632    8.140937          0         32

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-> circuit = 10

    Variable |       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
       djnum |        10         2.8    3.425395          0          9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-> circuit = 11

    Variable |       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
       djnum |         8       4.875    3.090885          0         10


. clear

. 
. 
. ** Number of opinions in dataset
. use "NelsonHazeltonHinkle_JOP2020_replication.dta", clear

. keep caseID

. duplicates drop

Duplicates in terms of all variables

(23441 observations deleted)

. describe

Contains data from NelsonHazeltonHinkle_JOP2020_replication.dta
  obs:        11,734                          
 vars:             1                          22 Jun 2020 08:13
 size:        23,468                          
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              storage   display    value
variable name   type    format     label      variable label
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
caseID          int     %8.0g                 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sorted by:  
     Note:  dataset has changed since last saved

. 
. use "NelsonHazeltonHinkle_JOP2020_replication.dta", clear

. 
. *** Text in Data and Methods section
. ** Distribution of outcome variable: vote to reverse
. tab revVote

    revVote |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |     25,865       73.53       73.53
          1 |      9,310       26.47      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |     35,175      100.00

. ** Percentage of judges casting votes in same case who have chambers in the same courthouse
. tab sameAddress

       Same |
 Courthouse |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |     31,497       89.54       89.54
          1 |      3,678       10.46      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |     35,175      100.00

. 
. *** Figure 1
. ** For marginal effects used to produce Figure 1 see below starting at lines 71 and 89
. 
. *** Appendix A
. ** Appendix A, FN 2: Matching on all pre-treatment covariates (that vary within appellate judge)
. cem fjcid(#0) aligned(#6) ideoLC(#0) panType(#0) qualIndex_LC(#2) sameLS(#0) civil_rights(#0) habeas(#0) female_LC(#0) m
> inority_LC(#0) year if sameAddress != ., treatment(sameAddress)

Matching Summary:
-----------------
Number of strata: 24091
Number of matched strata: 979

               0      1
      All  31497   3678
  Matched   2086   1275
Unmatched  29411   2403


Multivariate L1 distance: .81028571

Univariate imbalance:

                   L1     mean      min      25%      50%      75%      max
       fjcid  1.1e-14  2.5e-11        0        0        0        0        0
     aligned   .01049  -.00014        0        0   -.0245        0        0
      ideoLC  8.4e-15  7.5e-15        0        0        0        0        0
     panType  1.1e-14  1.2e-14        0        0        0        0        0
qualIndex_LC   .10028   .33132        0        0        0        0        1
      sameLS  8.1e-16  1.2e-15        0        0        0        0        0
civil_rights  3.8e-15  4.2e-15        0        0        0        0        0
      habeas  3.5e-16  6.0e-16        0        0        0        0        0
   female_LC  3.1e-16  3.9e-16        0        0        0        0        0
 minority_LC  2.6e-16  4.0e-16        0        0        0        0        0
        year   .02512  -.00523        0        0        0        0        0

. tab cem_matched

cem_matched |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |     31,814       90.44       90.44
          1 |      3,361        9.56      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |     35,175      100.00

. rename cem_weights cem_weightsAlt

. drop cem_strata cem_matched

. ** Matching Procedure Used Throughout Analysis
. cem fjcid(#0) aligned(#6) if sameAddress != ., treatment(sameAddress) 

Matching Summary:
-----------------
Number of strata: 1931
Number of matched strata: 500

               0      1
      All  31497   3678
  Matched  20729   3641
Unmatched  10768     37


Multivariate L1 distance: .02679173

Univariate imbalance:

              L1     mean      min      25%      50%      75%      max
  fjcid  5.9e-15  6.8e-13        0        0        0        0        0
aligned   .01347  -.00066        0        0        0        0        0

. tab cem_matched

cem_matched |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |     10,805       30.72       30.72
          1 |     24,370       69.28      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |     35,175      100.00

. rename cem_weights cem_weightsMain

. drop cem_strata 

. 
. *** Figure A.1
. kdensity aligned if cem_matched == 1, addplot(kdensity aligned)

. sum aligned, detail

                           Aligned
-------------------------------------------------------------
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%         -.65          -.798
 5%        -.523          -.798
10%        -.422          -.798       Obs               35175
25%        -.303          -.798       Sum of Wgt.       35175

50%         .034                      Mean           .0205868
                        Largest       Std. Dev.      .3451003
75%         .326            .65
90%        .4785            .65       Variance       .1190942
95%         .531           .699       Skewness      -.0955198
99%         .559           .798       Kurtosis       1.727603

. drop cem_matched

. 
. *** Table A.1: Summary statistics
. sum aligned qualIndex_LC3  caseload100 year qualIndex_LC3, detail

                           Aligned
-------------------------------------------------------------
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%         -.65          -.798
 5%        -.523          -.798
10%        -.422          -.798       Obs               35175
25%        -.303          -.798       Sum of Wgt.       35175

50%         .034                      Mean           .0205868
                        Largest       Std. Dev.      .3451003
75%         .326            .65
90%        .4785            .65       Variance       .1190942
95%         .531           .699       Skewness      -.0955198
99%         .559           .798       Kurtosis       1.727603

                Lower Court Judge Credentials
-------------------------------------------------------------
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%            0              0
 5%            0              0
10%            0              0       Obs               35175
25%            1              0       Sum of Wgt.       35175

50%            2                      Mean           1.945416
                        Largest       Std. Dev.      1.230929
75%            3              6
90%            4              6       Variance       1.515187
95%            4              6       Skewness       .3798827
99%            5              6       Kurtosis       2.660661

                          Caseload
-------------------------------------------------------------
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%     .5088889            .31
 5%         .985            .31
10%      1.32375            .31       Obs               35175
25%         1.98            .31       Sum of Wgt.       35175

50%        2.635                      Mean            2.77639
                        Largest       Std. Dev.      1.244013
75%     3.328889       7.395455
90%     4.483158       7.395455       Variance       1.547568
95%        5.336       7.395455       Skewness       .8688749
99%     6.440909       7.395455       Kurtosis       4.111505

                            Year
-------------------------------------------------------------
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%         1958           1953
 5%         1967           1953
10%         1972           1953       Obs               35175
25%         1980           1953       Sum of Wgt.       35175

50%         1991                      Mean           1989.909
                        Largest       Std. Dev.      13.28179
75%         2001           2010
90%         2007           2010       Variance       176.4059
95%         2009           2010       Skewness      -.3521952
99%         2010           2010       Kurtosis       2.267467

                Lower Court Judge Credentials
-------------------------------------------------------------
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%            0              0
 5%            0              0
10%            0              0       Obs               35175
25%            1              0       Sum of Wgt.       35175

50%            2                      Mean           1.945416
                        Largest       Std. Dev.      1.230929
75%            3              6
90%            4              6       Variance       1.515187
95%            4              6       Skewness       .3798827
99%            5              6       Kurtosis       2.660661

. tab circuit

    circuit |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
      First |      2,039        5.80        5.80
     Second |      2,544        7.23       13.03
      Third |      1,346        3.83       16.86
     Fourth |      1,686        4.79       21.65
      Fifth |      4,763       13.54       35.19
      Sixth |      3,165        9.00       44.19
    Seventh |      4,245       12.07       56.26
     Eighth |      5,237       14.89       71.14
      Ninth |      5,162       14.68       85.82
      Tenth |      3,263        9.28       95.10
   Eleventh |      1,725        4.90      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |     35,175      100.00

. tab revVote

    revVote |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |     25,865       73.53       73.53
          1 |      9,310       26.47      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |     35,175      100.00

. tab sameAddress 

       Same |
 Courthouse |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |     31,497       89.54       89.54
          1 |      3,678       10.46      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |     35,175      100.00

. tab ideoLC  

Ideological |
         ly |
  Congruent |
Lower Court |
     Ruling |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |     16,185       46.01       46.01
          1 |     18,990       53.99      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |     35,175      100.00

. tab panType 

              panType |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
----------------------+-----------------------------------
        Unified Panel |     10,409       29.59       29.59
Split Panel, Majority |     16,506       46.93       76.52
Split Panel, Minority |      8,260       23.48      100.00
----------------------+-----------------------------------
                Total |     35,175      100.00

. tab sameLS

   Same Law |
     School |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |     32,473       92.32       92.32
          1 |      2,702        7.68      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |     35,175      100.00

. tab DJdesig 

 DJ Sitting |
         by |
Designation |
(Appellate) |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |     31,912       90.72       90.72
          1 |      3,263        9.28      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |     35,175      100.00

. tab priorJud 

      Prior |
   Judicial |
 Experience |
(Appellate) |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |     26,057       74.08       74.08
          1 |      9,118       25.92      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |     35,175      100.00

. tab civil_rights

      Civil |
     Rights |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |     26,377       74.99       74.99
          1 |      8,798       25.01      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |     35,175      100.00

. tab habeas 

     Habeas |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |     32,857       93.41       93.41
          1 |      2,318        6.59      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |     35,175      100.00

. tab female_LC 

     Female |
Lower Court |
      Judge |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |     32,067       91.16       91.16
          1 |      3,108        8.84      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |     35,175      100.00

. tab minority_LC

   Minority |
Lower Court |
      Judge |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |     31,681       90.07       90.07
          1 |      3,494        9.93      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |     35,175      100.00

. 
. *** Table A.2 (see above at line 7)
. 
. *** Appendix B
. 
. *** Table B.1
. 
. ** Model 1: All Data
. probit revVote c.aligned##c.sameAddress ideoLC i.panType qualIndex_LC3 sameLS DJdesig priorJud civil_rights habeas femal
> e_LC minority_LC caseload100 year i.circuit 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -20327.347  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood =  -19286.03  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -19280.521  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =  -19280.52  

Probit regression                                 Number of obs   =      35175
                                                  LR chi2(26)     =    2093.66
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood =  -19280.52                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0515

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                revVote |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                aligned |  -.5051193   .0230014   -21.96   0.000    -.5502013   -.4600374
            sameAddress |   .0086961   .0253536     0.34   0.732    -.0409961    .0583883
                        |
c.aligned#c.sameAddress |   .5049362   .0668136     7.56   0.000      .373984    .6358884
                        |
                 ideoLC |  -.0047362   .0149556    -0.32   0.751    -.0340487    .0245763
                        |
                panType |
 Split Panel, Majority  |   .0101461   .0175498     0.58   0.563    -.0242508     .044543
 Split Panel, Minority  |   .0167327     .02049     0.82   0.414     -.023427    .0568924
                        |
          qualIndex_LC3 |   .0120908     .00634     1.91   0.057    -.0003354     .024517
                 sameLS |   -.027805    .028538    -0.97   0.330    -.0837385    .0281285
                DJdesig |  -.0250116   .0254435    -0.98   0.326      -.07488    .0248568
               priorJud |   -.044158   .0172687    -2.56   0.011    -.0780041    -.010312
           civil_rights |   .4152364   .0170936    24.29   0.000     .3817336    .4487392
                 habeas |   .0801463   .0301476     2.66   0.008      .021058    .1392346
              female_LC |  -.0690447   .0274393    -2.52   0.012    -.1228247   -.0152646
            minority_LC |   .1709298   .0243681     7.01   0.000     .1231692    .2186903
            caseload100 |   .0374297   .0120598     3.10   0.002     .0137931    .0610664
                   year |  -.0063401    .001125    -5.64   0.000     -.008545   -.0041353
                        |
                circuit |
                Second  |   .3323457   .0433568     7.67   0.000     .2473679    .4173234
                 Third  |   .6943842   .0475891    14.59   0.000     .6011113    .7876572
                Fourth  |   .3495892   .0475438     7.35   0.000     .2564051    .4427733
                 Fifth  |   .2371203   .0416187     5.70   0.000      .155549    .3186915
                 Sixth  |   .3803542   .0412334     9.22   0.000     .2995383    .4611701
               Seventh  |  -.0306177   .0397624    -0.77   0.441    -.1085505    .0473151
                Eighth  |  -.0671961   .0390577    -1.72   0.085    -.1437478    .0093556
                 Ninth  |   .3539743   .0388665     9.11   0.000     .2777974    .4301513
                 Tenth  |   .2255444   .0410097     5.50   0.000     .1451669    .3059219
              Eleventh  |   .3285513   .0524532     6.26   0.000      .225745    .4313576
                        |
                  _cons |     11.517   2.216133     5.20   0.000     7.173458    15.86054
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Model |    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
           . |  35175   -20327.35   -19280.52     27     38615.04    38843.68
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see [R] BIC note

. estimates store modA

. 
. * Marginal effects presented in the left panel of Figure 1
. margins, at(sameAddress=(0 1) aligned=(-.8(.2).8) ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil
> _rights=0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.635 year=1991 circuit=8)

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =      35175
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         -.8
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         -.8
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

3._at        : aligned         =         -.6
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

4._at        : aligned         =         -.6
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

5._at        : aligned         =         -.4
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

6._at        : aligned         =         -.4
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

7._at        : aligned         =         -.2
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

8._at        : aligned         =         -.2
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

9._at        : aligned         =           0
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

10._at       : aligned         =           0
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

11._at       : aligned         =          .2
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

12._at       : aligned         =          .2
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

13._at       : aligned         =          .4
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

14._at       : aligned         =          .4
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

15._at       : aligned         =          .6
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

16._at       : aligned         =          .6
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

17._at       : aligned         =          .8
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

18._at       : aligned         =          .8
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .2607285   .0099951    26.09   0.000     .2411384    .2803186
          2  |   .1500185   .0136677    10.98   0.000     .1232303    .1768067
          3  |   .2290058   .0085695    26.72   0.000       .21221    .2458017
          4  |     .15001   .0114092    13.15   0.000     .1276483    .1723717
          5  |   .1995726   .0073775    27.05   0.000      .185113    .2140322
          6  |   .1500014   .0095262    15.75   0.000     .1313305    .1686724
          7  |   .1725407   .0064345    26.82   0.000     .1599294     .185152
          8  |   .1499929   .0082786    18.12   0.000     .1337672    .1662186
          9  |   .1479661   .0057293    25.83   0.000     .1367369    .1591952
         10  |   .1499844   .0079703    18.82   0.000     .1343628    .1656059
         11  |    .125852   .0052233    24.09   0.000     .1156145    .1360895
         12  |   .1499758   .0087016    17.24   0.000     .1329209    .1670307
         13  |    .106154   .0048592    21.85   0.000     .0966301    .1156779
         14  |   .1499673   .0102522    14.63   0.000     .1298733    .1700613
         15  |   .0887861   .0045765    19.40   0.000     .0798164    .0977558
         16  |   .1499588   .0123163    12.18   0.000     .1258192    .1740983
         17  |    .073628   .0043251    17.02   0.000      .065151     .082105
         18  |   .1499502   .0146787    10.22   0.000     .1211805    .1787199
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, dydx(aligned) at(sameAddress=(0 1) ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_right
> s=0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.635 year=1991 circuit=8)

Average marginal effects                          Number of obs   =      35175
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : aligned

1._at        : sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
aligned      |
         _at |
          1  |  -.1155988   .0059702   -19.36   0.000    -.1273002   -.1038975
          2  |  -.0000427   .0146634    -0.00   0.998    -.0287824     .028697
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix b = r(table)

. * Difference between marginal effects
. di (b[1,1] - b[1,2])
-.11555614

. * z-test of difference between two marginal effects
. di (b[1,1] - (b[1,2]))/sqrt((b[2,1]^2)+(b[2,2]^2))
-7.2988206

. * p-value for z-test statistic
. di 2*(1 - normal(abs((b[1,1] - (b[1,2]))/sqrt((b[2,1]^2)+(b[2,2]^2)))))
2.902e-13

. matrix drop b 

. 
. 
. ** Model 2: Matched Data
. probit revVote c.aligned##c.sameAddress ideoLC i.panType qualIndex_LC3 sameLS DJdesig priorJud civil_rights habeas femal
> e_LC minority_LC caseload100 year i.circuit [iweight=cem_weightsMain]

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -14182.927  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -13493.706  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -13491.098  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -13491.098  

Probit regression                                 Number of obs   =      24370
                                                  LR chi2(26)     =    1383.66
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -13491.098                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0488

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                revVote |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                aligned |  -.1385402    .026882    -5.15   0.000    -.1912279   -.0858526
            sameAddress |  -.0389885   .0254429    -1.53   0.125    -.0888558    .0108788
                        |
c.aligned#c.sameAddress |   .1310416   .0683691     1.92   0.055    -.0029594    .2650425
                        |
                 ideoLC |  -.0033308   .0179721    -0.19   0.853    -.0385554    .0318938
                        |
                panType |
 Split Panel, Majority  |  -.0165967   .0210357    -0.79   0.430    -.0578259    .0246324
 Split Panel, Minority  |  -.0261045   .0242607    -1.08   0.282    -.0736546    .0214457
                        |
          qualIndex_LC3 |   .0166371   .0074933     2.22   0.026     .0019505    .0313236
                 sameLS |   .0205961   .0304793     0.68   0.499    -.0391422    .0803344
                DJdesig |   .0613581   .0516932     1.19   0.235    -.0399586    .1626749
               priorJud |  -.1033881   .0231859    -4.46   0.000    -.1488317   -.0579445
           civil_rights |   .3862769    .020606    18.75   0.000     .3458899    .4266639
                 habeas |   .1832782   .0326575     5.61   0.000     .1192708    .2472857
              female_LC |  -.0003254   .0348197    -0.01   0.993    -.0685707      .06792
            minority_LC |   .1312661    .030186     4.35   0.000     .0721027    .1904295
            caseload100 |   .0817465   .0169251     4.83   0.000      .048574    .1149191
                   year |  -.0118028   .0014043    -8.40   0.000    -.0145552   -.0090505
                        |
                circuit |
                Second  |    .107502   .0376289     2.86   0.004     .0337508    .1812533
                 Third  |    .724527   .0406084    17.84   0.000      .644936     .804118
                Fourth  |   .2748404   .0552668     4.97   0.000     .1665194    .3831615
                 Fifth  |   .0819401   .0467712     1.75   0.080    -.0097297    .1736099
                 Sixth  |    .331972   .0470149     7.06   0.000     .2398245    .4241194
               Seventh  |  -.1174038   .0320038    -3.67   0.000    -.1801302   -.0546775
                Eighth  |  -.1740037   .0391325    -4.45   0.000    -.2507019   -.0973054
                 Ninth  |   .3379506   .0385242     8.77   0.000     .2624445    .4134568
                 Tenth  |   .1644667   .0464087     3.54   0.000     .0735074    .2554261
              Eleventh  |   .2612055   .0747954     3.49   0.000     .1146091    .4078019
                        |
                  _cons |   22.39682   2.760414     8.11   0.000     16.98651    27.80713
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Model |    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
           . |  24370   -14182.93    -13491.1     27      27036.2    27254.93
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see [R] BIC note

. estimates store modM

. 
. * Marginal effects presented in the right panel of Figure 1
. margins, at(sameAddress=(0 1) aligned=(-.8(.2).8) ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil
> _rights=0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.635 year=1991 circuit=8)

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =      24370
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         -.8
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         -.8
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

3._at        : aligned         =         -.6
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

4._at        : aligned         =         -.6
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

5._at        : aligned         =         -.4
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

6._at        : aligned         =         -.4
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

7._at        : aligned         =         -.2
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

8._at        : aligned         =         -.2
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

9._at        : aligned         =           0
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

10._at       : aligned         =           0
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

11._at       : aligned         =          .2
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

12._at       : aligned         =          .2
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

13._at       : aligned         =          .4
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

14._at       : aligned         =          .4
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

15._at       : aligned         =          .6
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

16._at       : aligned         =          .6
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

17._at       : aligned         =          .8
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

18._at       : aligned         =          .8
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .1743624   .0101635    17.16   0.000     .1544423    .1942825
          2  |   .1398736   .0139243    10.05   0.000     .1125825    .1671647
          3  |   .1673291   .0092879    18.02   0.000     .1491251    .1855331
          4  |   .1395403   .0118964    11.73   0.000     .1162237    .1628568
          5  |   .1604813   .0086045    18.65   0.000     .1436168    .1773458
          6  |   .1392075   .0102589    13.57   0.000     .1191005    .1593145
          7  |   .1538192   .0081248    18.93   0.000     .1378948    .1697436
          8  |   .1388752   .0092136    15.07   0.000      .120817    .1569335
          9  |   .1473428   .0078498    18.77   0.000     .1319574    .1627282
         10  |   .1385435   .0089614    15.46   0.000     .1209795    .1561075
         11  |   .1410518   .0077664    18.16   0.000       .12583    .1562736
         12  |   .1382123   .0095573    14.46   0.000     .1194803    .1569444
         13  |   .1349454   .0078482    17.19   0.000     .1195632    .1503276
         14  |   .1378817   .0108556    12.70   0.000     .1166051    .1591584
         15  |   .1290229    .008061    16.01   0.000     .1132237    .1448221
         16  |   .1375516   .0126357    10.89   0.000     .1127861    .1623171
         17  |   .1232831   .0083687    14.73   0.000     .1068808    .1396854
         18  |   .1372221   .0147187     9.32   0.000      .108374    .1660702
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, dydx(aligned) at(sameAddress=(0 1) ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_right
> s=0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.635 year=1991 circuit=8)

Average marginal effects                          Number of obs   =      24370
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : aligned

1._at        : sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
aligned      |
         _at |
          1  |  -.0321065   .0063222    -5.08   0.000    -.0444977   -.0197153
          2  |  -.0016577   .0139868    -0.12   0.906    -.0290714    .0257559
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix b = r(table)

. * Difference between marginal effects
. di (b[1,1] - b[1,2])
-.03044874

. * z-test of difference between two marginal effects
. di (b[1,1] - (b[1,2]))/sqrt((b[2,1]^2)+(b[2,2]^2))
-1.9837223

. * p-value for z-test statistic
. di 2*(1 - normal(abs((b[1,1] - (b[1,2]))/sqrt((b[2,1]^2)+(b[2,2]^2)))))
.0472868

. matrix drop b 

. 
. 
. *** Appendix B
. ** In-text discussion of predicted probability of vote to reverse when Aligned = 0.12
. estimates restore modA
(results modA are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=(0 1) aligned=-0.12 ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_right
> s=0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.64 year=1991 circuit=8) post contrast(atcontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =        -.12
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =        -.12
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1        4.22     0.0399
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |  -.0124275   .0060487     -.0242828   -.0005722
--------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates restore modM
(results modM are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=(0 1) aligned=-0.12 ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_right
> s=0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.64 year=1991 circuit=8) post contrast(atcontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =        -.12
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =        -.12
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1        4.68     0.0306
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |  -.0124693   .0057652     -.0237689   -.0011697
--------------------------------------------------------------

. count if aligned <= -.12
13626

. di 13626/35175
.3873774

. 
. *** Figure B.1
. *** All Data
. ** Base predicted probability of reversal
. estimates restore modA
(results modA are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=0 aligned=0.03 ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rights=0 h
> abeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.64 year=1991 circuit=8)

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =      35175
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()
at           : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1445352   .0056447    25.61   0.000     .1334719    .1555986
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. ** Change in predicted probability for each variable
. estimates restore modA
(results modA are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=0 aligned=(-0.30 0.33) ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_ri
> ghts=0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.64 year=1991 circuit=8) post contrast(atcontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         -.3
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         .33
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1      370.72     0.0000
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |  -.0729879   .0037908     -.0804177   -.0655582
--------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates restore modA
(results modA are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=(0 1) aligned=0.03 ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rights
> =0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.64 year=1991 circuit=8) post contrast(atcontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1        0.85     0.3576
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |   .0054915   .0059695     -.0062085    .0171915
--------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates restore modA
(results modA are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=0 aligned=0.03 ideoLC=(0 1) panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rights
> =0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.64 year=1991 circuit=8) post contrast(atcontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1        0.10     0.7516
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |  -.0010799   .0034111     -.0077656    .0056059
--------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates restore modA
(results modA are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=0 aligned=0.03 ideoLC=1 panType=(0 1) qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rights
> =0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.64 year=1991 circuit=8) post contrast(atcontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           0
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1        0.33     0.5627
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |   .0022951   .0039654     -.0054769    .0100671
--------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates restore modA
(results modA are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=0 aligned=0.03 ideoLC=1 panType=(0 2) qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rights
> =0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.64 year=1991 circuit=8) post contrast(atcontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           0
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           2
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1        0.67     0.4146
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |   .0037984   .0046559      -.005327    .0129237
--------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates restore modA
(results modA are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=0 aligned=0.03 ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=(1 3) sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rights
> =0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.64 year=1991 circuit=8) post contrast(atcontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           1
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           3
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1        3.61     0.0573
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |   .0054996    .002893     -.0001705    .0111698
--------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates restore modA
(results modA are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=0 aligned=0.03 ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=(0 1) DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rights
> =0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.64 year=1991 circuit=8) post contrast(atcontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           1
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1        0.97     0.3238
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |  -.0062306   .0063149     -.0186077    .0061464
--------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates restore modA
(results modA are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=0 aligned=0.03 ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=(0 1) priorJud=0 civil_rights
> =0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.64 year=1991 circuit=8) post contrast(atcontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           1
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1        0.99     0.3203
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |  -.0056131   .0056474     -.0166818    .0054557
--------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates restore modA
(results modA are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=0 aligned=0.03 ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=(0 1) civil_rights
> =0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.64 year=1991 circuit=8) post contrast(atcontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           1
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1        6.68     0.0097
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |  -.0098083   .0037942     -.0172447   -.0023718
--------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates restore modA
(results modA are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=0 aligned=0.03 ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rights=(0 
> 1) habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.64 year=1991 circuit=8) post contrast(atcontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           1
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1      415.98     0.0000
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |   .1149522   .0056361      .1039056    .1259987
--------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates restore modA
(results modA are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=0 aligned=0.03 ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rights=0 h
> abeas=(0 1) female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.64 year=1991 circuit=8) post contrast(atcontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           1
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1        6.59     0.0103
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |   .0190037   .0074036      .0044929    .0335145
--------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates restore modA
(results modA are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=0 aligned=0.03 ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rights=0 h
> abeas=0 female_LC=(0 1) minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.64 year=1991 circuit=8) post contrast(atcontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           1
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1        6.74     0.0094
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |  -.0151301   .0058291     -.0265548   -.0037054
--------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates restore modA
(results modA are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=0 aligned=0.03 ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rights=0 h
> abeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=(0 1) caseload100=2.64 year=1991 circuit=8) post contrast(atcontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           1
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1       41.49     0.0000
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |   .0424036   .0065832      .0295009    .0553064
--------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates restore modA
(results modA are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=0 aligned=0.03 ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rights=0 h
> abeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=(1.98 3.33) year=1991 circuit=8) post contrast(atcontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        1.98
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        3.33
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1        9.38     0.0022
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |   .0114991   .0037553      .0041387    .0188594
--------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates restore modA
(results modA are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=0 aligned=0.03 ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rights=0 h
> abeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.64 year=(1980 2001) circuit=8) post contrast(atcontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1980
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        2001
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1       29.92     0.0000
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |  -.0303851   .0055548     -.0412723    -.019498
--------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. ** Figure B.1 (con.): Matched Data
. ** Base predicted probability of reversal
. estimates restore modM
(results modM are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=0 aligned=0.03 ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rights=0 h
> abeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.64 year=1991 circuit=8)

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =      24370
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()
at           : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1464811   .0078306    18.71   0.000     .1311335    .1618288
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. ** Change in predicted probability for each variable
. estimates restore modM
(results modM are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=0 aligned=(-0.30 0.33) ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_ri
> ghts=0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.64 year=1991 circuit=8) post contrast(atcontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         -.3
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         .33
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1       26.19     0.0000
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |   -.020074   .0039227     -.0277624   -.0123855
--------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates restore modM
(results modM are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=(0 1) aligned=0.03 ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rights
> =0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.64 year=1991 circuit=8) post contrast(atcontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1        1.90     0.1682
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |   -.007897   .0057312       -.01913    .0033359
--------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates restore modM
(results modM are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=0 aligned=0.03 ideoLC=(0 1) panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rights
> =0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.64 year=1991 circuit=8) post contrast(atcontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1        0.03     0.8530
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |  -.0007657   .0041326     -.0088655    .0073341
--------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates restore modM
(results modM are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=0 aligned=0.03 ideoLC=1 panType=(0 1) qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rights
> =0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.64 year=1991 circuit=8) post contrast(atcontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           0
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1        0.62     0.4311
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |   -.003842   .0048804     -.0134073    .0057234
--------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates restore modM
(results modM are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=0 aligned=0.03 ideoLC=1 panType=(0 2) qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rights
> =0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.64 year=1991 circuit=8) post contrast(atcontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           0
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           2
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1        1.16     0.2819
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |  -.0060129   .0055882     -.0169657    .0049398
--------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates restore modM
(results modM are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=0 aligned=0.03 ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=(1 3) sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rights
> =0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.64 year=1991 circuit=8) post contrast(atcontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           1
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           3
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1        4.87     0.0273
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |    .007636   .0034605      .0008535    .0144184
--------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates restore modM
(results modM are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=0 aligned=0.03 ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=(0 1) DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rights
> =0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.64 year=1991 circuit=8) post contrast(atcontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           1
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1        0.45     0.5030
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |   .0047777   .0071333     -.0092033    .0187588
--------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates restore modM
(results modM are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=0 aligned=0.03 ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=(0 1) priorJud=0 civil_rights
> =0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.64 year=1991 circuit=8) post contrast(atcontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           1
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1        1.33     0.2496
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |   .0145357    .012626     -.0102108    .0392823
--------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates restore modM
(results modM are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=0 aligned=0.03 ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=(0 1) civil_rights
> =0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.64 year=1991 circuit=8) post contrast(atcontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           1
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1       20.28     0.0000
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |  -.0224428   .0049835     -.0322103   -.0126752
--------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates restore modM
(results modM are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=0 aligned=0.03 ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rights=(0 
> 1) habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.64 year=1991 circuit=8) post contrast(atcontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           1
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1      241.96     0.0000
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |   .1064263   .0068419      .0930164    .1198361
--------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates restore modM
(results modM are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=0 aligned=0.03 ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rights=0 h
> abeas=(0 1) female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.64 year=1991 circuit=8) post contrast(atcontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           1
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1       26.73     0.0000
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |   .0461155   .0089191      .0286343    .0635967
--------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates restore modM
(results modM are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=0 aligned=0.03 ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rights=0 h
> abeas=0 female_LC=(0 1) minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.64 year=1991 circuit=8) post contrast(atcontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           1
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1        0.00     0.9925
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |  -.0000747    .007988     -.0157309    .0155816
--------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates restore modM
(results modM are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=0 aligned=0.03 ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rights=0 h
> abeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=(0 1) caseload100=2.64 year=1991 circuit=8) post contrast(atcontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           1
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1       16.51     0.0000
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |   .0322061   .0079258      .0166718    .0477405
--------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates restore modM
(results modM are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=0 aligned=0.03 ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rights=0 h
> abeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=(1.98 3.33) year=1991 circuit=8) post contrast(atcontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        1.98
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        3.33
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1       21.97     0.0000
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |   .0253594   .0054104      .0147552    .0359637
--------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates restore modM
(results modM are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=0 aligned=0.03 ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rights=0 h
> abeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.64 year=(1980 2001) circuit=8) post contrast(atcontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        1980
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         .03
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =        2.64
               year            =        2001
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1       61.27     0.0000
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |  -.0572467   .0073137     -.0715812   -.0429121
--------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *** Appendix C
. 
. *** Table C.1 and Figure C.2
. ** Model 3: All Data
. probit revVote c.aligned##c.sameAddress##c.ideoLC i.panType qualIndex_LC3 sameLS DJdesig priorJud civil_rights habeas fe
> male_LC minority_LC caseload100 year i.circuit 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -20327.347  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -19280.823  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -19275.265  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -19275.264  

Probit regression                                 Number of obs   =      35175
                                                  LR chi2(29)     =    2104.17
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -19275.264                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0518

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                         revVote |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                         aligned |  -.4931978   .0339795   -14.51   0.000    -.5597964   -.4265991
                     sameAddress |   .0863305   .0356113     2.42   0.015     .0165335    .1561274
                                 |
         c.aligned#c.sameAddress |   .5975161   .0965569     6.19   0.000      .408268    .7867641
                                 |
                          ideoLC |    .009716   .0157913     0.62   0.538    -.0212345    .0406664
                                 |
              c.aligned#c.ideoLC |  -.0234052   .0459109    -0.51   0.610     -.113389    .0665786
                                 |
          c.sameAddress#c.ideoLC |  -.1462294   .0484488    -3.02   0.003    -.2411873   -.0512714
                                 |
c.aligned#c.sameAddress#c.ideoLC |  -.1533079   .1340471    -1.14   0.253    -.4160353    .1094195
                                 |
                         panType |
          Split Panel, Majority  |   .0095243   .0175572     0.54   0.587    -.0248873    .0439358
          Split Panel, Minority  |   .0154495   .0205217     0.75   0.452    -.0247724    .0556713
                                 |
                   qualIndex_LC3 |   .0123306    .006342     1.94   0.052    -.0000995    .0247607
                          sameLS |  -.0291016   .0285484    -1.02   0.308    -.0850556    .0268523
                         DJdesig |   -.025398   .0254466    -1.00   0.318    -.0752724    .0244764
                        priorJud |   -.043702   .0172726    -2.53   0.011    -.0775557   -.0098484
                    civil_rights |   .4151996   .0170967    24.29   0.000     .3816908    .4487085
                          habeas |   .0810659   .0301543     2.69   0.007     .0219646    .1401673
                       female_LC |  -.0695745   .0274448    -2.54   0.011    -.1233653   -.0157837
                     minority_LC |   .1706612   .0243792     7.00   0.000     .1228788    .2184436
                     caseload100 |   .0377803   .0120618     3.13   0.002     .0141395     .061421
                            year |  -.0063576   .0011251    -5.65   0.000    -.0085628   -.0041524
                                 |
                         circuit |
                         Second  |   .3328377   .0433596     7.68   0.000     .2478544     .417821
                          Third  |   .6962057   .0476156    14.62   0.000     .6028809    .7895305
                         Fourth  |   .3513594   .0475492     7.39   0.000     .2581647    .4445542
                          Fifth  |   .2394516   .0416349     5.75   0.000     .1578487    .3210545
                          Sixth  |     .38231   .0412436     9.27   0.000     .3014741    .4631459
                        Seventh  |   -.028684   .0397743    -0.72   0.471    -.1066403    .0492723
                         Eighth  |  -.0660065   .0390678    -1.69   0.091     -.142578    .0105651
                          Ninth  |   .3555313   .0388795     9.14   0.000     .2793289    .4317336
                          Tenth  |   .2280689   .0410237     5.56   0.000     .1476638    .3084739
                       Eleventh  |   .3295667   .0524645     6.28   0.000     .2267382    .4323952
                                 |
                           _cons |    11.5416   2.216456     5.21   0.000     7.197426    15.88577
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Model |    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
           . |  35175   -20327.35   -19275.26     30     38610.53    38864.57
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see [R] BIC note

. estimates store mod1A

. 
. * Figure C.2, top right panel 
. margins, at(sameAddress=(0 1) aligned=(-.8(.2).8) ideoLC=(1) panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civ
> il_rights=0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.635 year=1991 circuit=8)

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =      35175
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         -.8
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         -.8
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

3._at        : aligned         =         -.6
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

4._at        : aligned         =         -.6
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

5._at        : aligned         =         -.4
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

6._at        : aligned         =         -.4
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

7._at        : aligned         =         -.2
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

8._at        : aligned         =         -.2
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

9._at        : aligned         =           0
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

10._at       : aligned         =           0
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

11._at       : aligned         =          .2
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

12._at       : aligned         =          .2
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

13._at       : aligned         =          .4
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

14._at       : aligned         =          .4
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

15._at       : aligned         =          .6
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

16._at       : aligned         =          .6
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

17._at       : aligned         =          .8
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

18._at       : aligned         =          .8
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .2657652    .011538    23.03   0.000     .2431512    .2883793
          2  |   .1489524   .0184499     8.07   0.000     .1127912    .1851136
          3  |   .2330033   .0095109    24.50   0.000     .2143623    .2516442
          4  |   .1456176   .0148484     9.81   0.000     .1165152      .17472
          5  |   .2026162   .0078498    25.81   0.000      .187231    .2180015
          6  |   .1423333   .0117775    12.09   0.000     .1192499    .1654167
          7  |    .174731   .0066075    26.44   0.000     .1617806    .1876815
          8  |   .1390995   .0095938    14.50   0.000     .1202961     .157903
          9  |   .1494131   .0057901    25.81   0.000     .1380648    .1607614
         10  |   .1359161   .0088043    15.44   0.000     .1186601    .1531722
         11  |     .12667   .0053328    23.75   0.000     .1162179    .1371221
         12  |    .132783   .0096061    13.82   0.000     .1139554    .1516106
         13  |   .1064566   .0051126    20.82   0.000      .096436    .1164771
         14  |   .1296999   .0115575    11.22   0.000     .1070476    .1523523
         15  |    .088682   .0049983    17.74   0.000     .0788855    .0984786
         16  |   .1266668   .0140986     8.98   0.000     .0990342    .1542995
         17  |    .073218   .0048922    14.97   0.000     .0636293    .0828066
         18  |   .1236835   .0168915     7.32   0.000     .0905768    .1567901
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, dydx(aligned) at(ideoLC=(1) sameAddress=(0 1) panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rig
> hts=0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.635 year=1991 circuit=8)

Average marginal effects                          Number of obs   =      35175
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : aligned

1._at        : sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
aligned      |
         _at |
          1  |  -.1189596   .0077049   -15.44   0.000     -.134061   -.1038583
          2  |  -.0157664   .0191012    -0.83   0.409    -.0532042    .0216713
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix b = r(table)

. ** Difference between marginal effects
. di (b[1,1] - b[1,2])
-.10319318

. ** z-test of difference between two marginal effects
. di (b[1,1] - (b[1,2]))/sqrt((b[2,1]^2)+(b[2,2]^2))
-5.010188

. ** p-value for z-test statistic
. di 2*(1 - normal(abs((b[1,1] - (b[1,2]))/sqrt((b[2,1]^2)+(b[2,2]^2)))))
5.438e-07

. matrix drop b 

. 
. * Figure C.2, top right panel 
. estimates restore mod1A
(results mod1A are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=(0 1) aligned=(-.8(.2).8) ideoLC=(0) panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civ
> il_rights=0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.635 year=1991 circuit=8)

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =      35175
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         -.8
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         -.8
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

3._at        : aligned         =         -.6
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

4._at        : aligned         =         -.6
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

5._at        : aligned         =         -.4
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

6._at        : aligned         =         -.4
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

7._at        : aligned         =         -.2
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

8._at        : aligned         =         -.2
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

9._at        : aligned         =           0
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

10._at       : aligned         =           0
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

11._at       : aligned         =          .2
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

12._at       : aligned         =          .2
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

13._at       : aligned         =          .4
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

14._at       : aligned         =          .4
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

15._at       : aligned         =          .6
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

16._at       : aligned         =          .6
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

17._at       : aligned         =          .8
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

18._at       : aligned         =          .8
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |     .25652   .0118616    21.63   0.000     .2332716    .2797683
          2  |   .1478281   .0179304     8.24   0.000     .1126851    .1829711
          3  |   .2257997   .0096991    23.28   0.000     .2067899    .2448096
          4  |    .152698   .0148497    10.28   0.000     .1235932    .1818029
          5  |   .1972762    .007949    24.82   0.000     .1816965    .2128559
          6  |   .1576732    .012161    12.97   0.000     .1338381    .1815083
          7  |   .1710484    .006673    25.63   0.000     .1579695    .1841273
          8  |   .1627538   .0103983    15.65   0.000     .1423734    .1831341
          9  |   .1471651   .0058808    25.02   0.000     .1356389    .1586913
         10  |   .1679396    .010292    16.32   0.000     .1477676    .1881115
         11  |   .1256269   .0054953    22.86   0.000     .1148564    .1363974
         12  |   .1732306    .012091    14.33   0.000     .1495327    .1969285
         13  |   .1063916   .0053681    19.82   0.000     .0958704    .1169128
         14  |   .1786265   .0152973    11.68   0.000     .1486444    .2086087
         15  |   .0893791   .0053457    16.72   0.000     .0789016    .0998565
         16  |   .1841271    .019355     9.51   0.000     .1461919    .2220622
         17  |   .0744781    .005319    14.00   0.000     .0640531    .0849032
         18  |   .1897319    .023946     7.92   0.000     .1427987    .2366651
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, dydx(aligned) at(ideoLC=(0) sameAddress=(0 1) panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rig
> hts=0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.635 year=1991 circuit=8)

Average marginal effects                          Number of obs   =      35175
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : aligned

1._at        : sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
aligned      |
         _at |
          1  |  -.1124907   .0081663   -13.78   0.000    -.1284964   -.0964851
          2  |    .026245   .0229751     1.14   0.253    -.0187855    .0712754
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix b = r(table)

. ** Difference between marginal effects
. di (b[1,1] - b[1,2])
-.13873573

. ** z-test of difference between two marginal effects
. di (b[1,1] - (b[1,2]))/sqrt((b[2,1]^2)+(b[2,2]^2))
-5.6897858

. ** p-value for z-test statistic
. di 2*(1 - normal(abs((b[1,1] - (b[1,2]))/sqrt((b[2,1]^2)+(b[2,2]^2)))))
1.272e-08

. matrix drop b

. 
. 
. ** Appendix C, dissusion in text: Marginal Effect of Aligned not different based ideological congruency of lower court r
> uling either in same or different courthouses
. estimates restore mod1A
(results mod1A are active now)

. margins, dydx(aligned) at(ideoLC=(0 1) sameAddress=(1) panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rig
> hts=0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.635 year=1991 circuit=8)

Average marginal effects                          Number of obs   =      35175
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : aligned

1._at        : sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
aligned      |
         _at |
          1  |    .026245   .0229751     1.14   0.253    -.0187855    .0712754
          2  |  -.0157664   .0191012    -0.83   0.409    -.0532042    .0216713
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix b = r(table)

. ** Difference between marginal effects
. di (b[1,1] - b[1,2])
.04201143

. ** z-test of difference between two marginal effects
. di (b[1,1] - (b[1,2]))/sqrt((b[2,1]^2)+(b[2,2]^2))
1.4060838

. ** p-value for z-test statistic
. di 2*(1 - normal(abs((b[1,1] - (b[1,2]))/sqrt((b[2,1]^2)+(b[2,2]^2)))))
.15969925

. matrix drop b 

. 
. estimates restore mod1A
(results mod1A are active now)

. margins, dydx(aligned) at(ideoLC=(0 1) sameAddress=(0) panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rig
> hts=0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.635 year=1991 circuit=8)

Average marginal effects                          Number of obs   =      35175
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : aligned

1._at        : sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
aligned      |
         _at |
          1  |  -.1124907   .0081663   -13.78   0.000    -.1284964   -.0964851
          2  |  -.1189596   .0077049   -15.44   0.000     -.134061   -.1038583
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix b = r(table)

. ** Difference between marginal effects
. di (b[1,1] - b[1,2])
.00646887

. ** z-test of difference between two marginal effects
. di (b[1,1] - (b[1,2]))/sqrt((b[2,1]^2)+(b[2,2]^2))
.57617043

. ** p-value for z-test statistic
. di 2*(1 - normal(abs((b[1,1] - (b[1,2]))/sqrt((b[2,1]^2)+(b[2,2]^2)))))
.56449999

. matrix drop b 

. 
. 
. *** Table C.1 and Figure C.2: Matched Data
. probit revVote c.aligned##c.sameAddress##c.ideoLC i.panType qualIndex_LC3 sameLS DJdesig priorJud civil_rights habeas fe
> male_LC minority_LC caseload100 year i.circuit [iweight=cem_weightsMain]

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -14182.927  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -13487.557  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -13484.885  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -13484.885  

Probit regression                                 Number of obs   =      24370
                                                  LR chi2(29)     =    1396.08
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -13484.885                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0492

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                         revVote |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                         aligned |  -.1839581   .0394964    -4.66   0.000    -.2613696   -.1065465
                     sameAddress |   .0431762    .036378     1.19   0.235    -.0281234    .1144759
                                 |
         c.aligned#c.sameAddress |   .2805991   .0989921     2.83   0.005     .0865782    .4746201
                                 |
                          ideoLC |   .0219963   .0196478     1.12   0.263    -.0165127    .0605053
                                 |
              c.aligned#c.ideoLC |   .0820004   .0532553     1.54   0.124     -.022378    .1863789
                                 |
          c.sameAddress#c.ideoLC |  -.1534716   .0500921    -3.06   0.002    -.2516504   -.0552928
                                 |
c.aligned#c.sameAddress#c.ideoLC |  -.2584663   .1373587    -1.88   0.060    -.5276844    .0107517
                                 |
                         panType |
          Split Panel, Majority  |  -.0159227   .0210487    -0.76   0.449    -.0571773     .025332
          Split Panel, Minority  |  -.0247501   .0243191    -1.02   0.309    -.0724147    .0229144
                                 |
                   qualIndex_LC3 |    .016668   .0074977     2.22   0.026     .0019727    .0313633
                          sameLS |   .0197995    .030507     0.65   0.516    -.0399931    .0795921
                         DJdesig |   .0598162   .0517107     1.16   0.247    -.0415349    .1611673
                        priorJud |   -.102997   .0231963    -4.44   0.000    -.1484609   -.0575331
                    civil_rights |   .3862398   .0206093    18.74   0.000     .3458464    .4266332
                          habeas |   .1839992    .032676     5.63   0.000     .1199554     .248043
                       female_LC |  -.0002137   .0348321    -0.01   0.995    -.0684833    .0680559
                     minority_LC |   .1322571   .0302029     4.38   0.000     .0730604    .1914537
                     caseload100 |   .0824297   .0169284     4.87   0.000     .0492506    .1156088
                            year |    -.01184   .0014046    -8.43   0.000     -.014593    -.009087
                                 |
                         circuit |
                         Second  |   .1076002   .0376348     2.86   0.004     .0338374    .1813631
                          Third  |   .7260659   .0406316    17.87   0.000     .6464294    .8057024
                         Fourth  |   .2767599   .0552735     5.01   0.000     .1684259    .3850939
                          Fifth  |   .0841376   .0467941     1.80   0.072    -.0075771    .1758523
                          Sixth  |   .3333187   .0470222     7.09   0.000     .2411568    .4254806
                        Seventh  |  -.1150223   .0320294    -3.59   0.000    -.1777988   -.0522459
                         Eighth  |  -.1734241   .0391457    -4.43   0.000    -.2501483      -.0967
                          Ninth  |   .3414179   .0385551     8.86   0.000     .2658513    .4169845
                          Tenth  |     .16736   .0464278     3.60   0.000     .0763632    .2583569
                       Eleventh  |   .2621696    .074824     3.50   0.000     .1155172     .408822
                                 |
                           _cons |   22.45231   2.761013     8.13   0.000     17.04082     27.8638
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Model |    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
           . |  24370   -14182.93   -13484.88     30     27029.77     27272.8
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see [R] BIC note

. estimates store mod1M

. 
. * Figure C.2, bottom left panel 
. estimates restore mod1M
(results mod1M are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=(0 1) aligned=(-.8(.2).8) ideoLC=(1) panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civ
> il_rights=0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.635 year=1991 circuit=8)

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =      24370
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         -.8
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         -.8
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

3._at        : aligned         =         -.6
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

4._at        : aligned         =         -.6
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

5._at        : aligned         =         -.4
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

6._at        : aligned         =         -.4
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

7._at        : aligned         =         -.2
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

8._at        : aligned         =         -.2
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

9._at        : aligned         =           0
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

10._at       : aligned         =           0
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

11._at       : aligned         =          .2
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

12._at       : aligned         =          .2
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

13._at       : aligned         =          .4
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

14._at       : aligned         =          .4
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

15._at       : aligned         =          .6
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

16._at       : aligned         =          .6
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

17._at       : aligned         =          .8
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

18._at       : aligned         =          .8
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |    .169437   .0110808    15.29   0.000     .1477191     .191155
          2  |   .1390951   .0182269     7.63   0.000     .1033711    .1748191
          3  |   .1643381   .0098398    16.70   0.000     .1450525    .1836236
          4  |   .1355879   .0148629     9.12   0.000     .1064572    .1647186
          5  |   .1593397   .0088778    17.95   0.000     .1419395    .1767399
          6  |   .1321418   .0120578    10.96   0.000     .1085088    .1557747
          7  |   .1544419   .0082446    18.73   0.000     .1382828    .1706011
          8  |   .1287565    .010121    12.72   0.000     .1089197    .1485934
          9  |   .1496447   .0079706    18.77   0.000     .1340227    .1652667
         10  |   .1254319   .0094297    13.30   0.000     .1069501    .1439137
         11  |    .144948   .0080467    18.01   0.000     .1291767    .1607192
         12  |   .1221677   .0100924    12.10   0.000     .1023869    .1419485
         13  |   .1403515    .008422    16.66   0.000     .1238446    .1568584
         14  |   .1189636   .0117643    10.11   0.000      .095906    .1420212
         15  |    .135855   .0090225    15.06   0.000     .1181712    .1535388
         16  |   .1158193   .0139938     8.28   0.000      .088392    .1432465
         17  |   .1314582   .0097746    13.45   0.000     .1123004     .150616
         18  |   .1127344    .016479     6.84   0.000     .0804363    .1450326
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, dydx(aligned) at(ideoLC=(1) sameAddress=(0 1) panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rig
> hts=0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.635 year=1991 circuit=8)

Average marginal effects                          Number of obs   =      24370
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : aligned

1._at        : sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
aligned      |
         _at |
          1  |   -.023836   .0085183    -2.80   0.005    -.0405316   -.0071404
          2  |  -.0165342   .0183598    -0.90   0.368    -.0525188    .0194504
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix b = r(table)

. ** Difference between marginal effects
. di (b[1,1] - b[1,2])
-.0073018

. ** z-test of difference between two marginal effects
. di (b[1,1] - (b[1,2]))/sqrt((b[2,1]^2)+(b[2,2]^2))
-.36076637

. ** p-value for z-test statistic
. di 2*(1 - normal(abs((b[1,1] - (b[1,2]))/sqrt((b[2,1]^2)+(b[2,2]^2)))))
.71827411

. matrix drop b 

. 
. * Figure C.2, bottom right panel 
. estimates restore mod1M
(results mod1M are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=(0 1) aligned=(-.8(.2).8) ideoLC=(0) panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civ
> il_rights=0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.635 year=1991 circuit=8)

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =      24370
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         -.8
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         -.8
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

3._at        : aligned         =         -.6
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

4._at        : aligned         =         -.6
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

5._at        : aligned         =         -.4
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

6._at        : aligned         =         -.4
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

7._at        : aligned         =         -.2
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

8._at        : aligned         =         -.2
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

9._at        : aligned         =           0
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

10._at       : aligned         =           0
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

11._at       : aligned         =          .2
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

12._at       : aligned         =          .2
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

13._at       : aligned         =          .4
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

14._at       : aligned         =          .4
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

15._at       : aligned         =          .6
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

16._at       : aligned         =          .6
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

17._at       : aligned         =          .8
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

18._at       : aligned         =          .8
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .1806769   .0119332    15.14   0.000     .1572882    .2040656
          2  |   .1369575   .0177516     7.72   0.000     .1021649      .17175
          3  |   .1711629   .0103657    16.51   0.000     .1508465    .1914793
          4  |   .1412404   .0149491     9.45   0.000     .1119407    .1705401
          5  |   .1619754   .0091542    17.69   0.000     .1440336    .1799173
          6  |   .1456132   .0125664    11.59   0.000     .1209836    .1702429
          7  |   .1531154   .0083484    18.34   0.000     .1367527     .169478
          8  |   .1500762   .0110638    13.56   0.000     .1283915    .1717608
          9  |   .1445826   .0079675    18.15   0.000     .1289665    .1601987
         10  |   .1546294   .0110057    14.05   0.000     .1330585    .1762003
         11  |   .1363761   .0079758    17.10   0.000     .1207438    .1520084
         12  |    .159273   .0125867    12.65   0.000     .1346035    .1839425
         13  |   .1284942   .0082873    15.50   0.000     .1122513    .1447371
         14  |    .164007   .0154543    10.61   0.000     .1337171    .1942969
         15  |   .1209342   .0087981    13.75   0.000     .1036903    .1381781
         16  |   .1688313   .0191588     8.81   0.000     .1312808    .2063818
         17  |   .1136927   .0094159    12.07   0.000      .095238    .1321475
         18  |   .1737458   .0234082     7.42   0.000     .1278665    .2196251
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, dydx(aligned) at(ideoLC=(0) sameAddress=(0 1) panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rig
> hts=0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.635 year=1991 circuit=8)

Average marginal effects                          Number of obs   =      24370
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : aligned

1._at        : sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
aligned      |
         _at |
          1  |  -.0421824   .0091454    -4.61   0.000     -.060107   -.0242578
          2  |   .0229025   .0216468     1.06   0.290    -.0195244    .0653294
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix b = r(table)

. ** Difference between marginal effects
. di (b[1,1] - b[1,2])
-.06508495

. ** z-test of difference between two marginal effects
. di (b[1,1] - (b[1,2]))/sqrt((b[2,1]^2)+(b[2,2]^2))
-2.7696472

. ** p-value for z-test statistic
. di 2*(1 - normal(abs((b[1,1] - (b[1,2]))/sqrt((b[2,1]^2)+(b[2,2]^2)))))
.0056117

. matrix drop b 

. 
. ** Appendix C, dissusion in text: Marginal Effect of Aligned not different based ideological congruency of lower court r
> uling either in same or different courthouses
. margins, dydx(aligned) at(ideoLC=(0 1) sameAddress=(0) panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rig
> hts=0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.635 year=1991 circuit=8)

Average marginal effects                          Number of obs   =      24370
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : aligned

1._at        : sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
aligned      |
         _at |
          1  |  -.0421824   .0091454    -4.61   0.000     -.060107   -.0242578
          2  |   -.023836   .0085183    -2.80   0.005    -.0405316   -.0071404
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix b = r(table)

. ** Difference between marginal effects
. di (b[1,1] - b[1,2])
-.01834643

. ** z-test of difference between two marginal effects
. di (b[1,1] - (b[1,2]))/sqrt((b[2,1]^2)+(b[2,2]^2))
-1.4679513

. ** p-value for z-test statistic
. di 2*(1 - normal(abs((b[1,1] - (b[1,2]))/sqrt((b[2,1]^2)+(b[2,2]^2)))))
.14211745

. matrix drop b 

. 
. margins, dydx(aligned) at(ideoLC=(0 1) sameAddress=(1) panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rig
> hts=0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.635 year=1991 circuit=8)

Average marginal effects                          Number of obs   =      24370
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : aligned

1._at        : sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           0
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
aligned      |
         _at |
          1  |   .0229025   .0216468     1.06   0.290    -.0195244    .0653294
          2  |  -.0165342   .0183598    -0.90   0.368    -.0525188    .0194504
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix b = r(table)

. ** Difference between marginal effects
. di (b[1,1] - b[1,2])
.03943672

. ** z-test of difference between two marginal effects
. di (b[1,1] - (b[1,2]))/sqrt((b[2,1]^2)+(b[2,2]^2))
1.3893871

. ** p-value for z-test statistic
. di 2*(1 - normal(abs((b[1,1] - (b[1,2]))/sqrt((b[2,1]^2)+(b[2,2]^2)))))
.16471508

. matrix drop b 

. 
. 
. *** Appendix D
. 
. ** Discussion in text
. count if cfScore != . & sameAddress != .
 8484

. di 8484/35179
.24116661

. 
. count if cfScoreImp == . & sameAddress != .
 5147

. di 5147/35179
.14630888

. 
. ** Matching using CF scores
. cem fjcid(#0) alignedCF(#6) if sameAddress != ., treatment(sameAddress) 

Matching Summary:
-----------------
Number of strata: 1756
Number of matched strata: 460

               0      1
      All  31497   3678
  Matched  20912   3642
Unmatched  10585     36


Multivariate L1 distance: .02702817

Univariate imbalance:

                L1     mean      min      25%      50%      75%      max
    fjcid  3.1e-15  1.6e-11        0        0        0        0        0
alignedCF   .01007    .0034        0        0        0        0        .

. rename cem_weights cem_weightsCF

. drop cem_strata cem_matched

. 
. *** Tabe D.1 and data for Figure D.1
. ** Model 5: All Data
. probit revVote c.alignedCF##c.sameAddress ideoLC i.panType qualIndex_LC3 sameLS DJdesig priorJud civil_rights habeas fem
> ale_LC minority_LC caseload100 year i.circuit 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -17362.423  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -16320.576  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -16313.234  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -16313.231  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -16313.231  

Probit regression                                 Number of obs   =      30028
                                                  LR chi2(26)     =    2098.38
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -16313.231                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0604

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  revVote |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                alignedCF |  -.2864835   .0125314   -22.86   0.000    -.3110446   -.2619223
              sameAddress |  -.0073007    .028089    -0.26   0.795    -.0623542    .0477527
                          |
c.alignedCF#c.sameAddress |   .1800255   .0401661     4.48   0.000     .1013014    .2587496
                          |
                   ideoLC |   -.019607    .016237    -1.21   0.227    -.0514308    .0122169
                          |
                  panType |
   Split Panel, Majority  |   .0122682   .0189988     0.65   0.518    -.0249688    .0495052
   Split Panel, Minority  |   .0061831   .0222625     0.28   0.781    -.0374507    .0498168
                          |
            qualIndex_LC3 |   .0111609   .0067963     1.64   0.101    -.0021596    .0244814
                   sameLS |  -.0261067   .0313086    -0.83   0.404    -.0874705    .0352571
                  DJdesig |  -.0179892   .0288476    -0.62   0.533    -.0745295    .0385511
                 priorJud |    -.05692   .0186741    -3.05   0.002    -.0935205   -.0203194
             civil_rights |   .4083356   .0180137    22.67   0.000     .3730293    .4436418
                   habeas |   .0293984   .0356918     0.82   0.410    -.0405563    .0993531
                female_LC |   -.064765   .0280103    -2.31   0.021    -.1196642   -.0098658
              minority_LC |   .1668875   .0252174     6.62   0.000     .1174623    .2163127
              caseload100 |   .0319065   .0126223     2.53   0.011     .0071673    .0566457
                     year |  -.0080393   .0012631    -6.36   0.000     -.010515   -.0055636
                          |
                  circuit |
                  Second  |   .4291267   .0479117     8.96   0.000     .3352214    .5230319
                   Third  |   .7842743   .0507188    15.46   0.000     .6848673    .8836813
                  Fourth  |   .4082119   .0510388     8.00   0.000     .3081778    .5082461
                   Fifth  |   .2760702   .0453091     6.09   0.000      .187266    .3648743
                   Sixth  |   .4352421   .0437944     9.94   0.000     .3494066    .5210775
                 Seventh  |   .0317901   .0425203     0.75   0.455    -.0515481    .1151283
                  Eighth  |   .0011208   .0413597     0.03   0.978    -.0799427    .0821843
                   Ninth  |   .4132179    .041592     9.94   0.000     .3316991    .4947368
                   Tenth  |    .314248   .0432105     7.27   0.000      .229557     .398939
                Eleventh  |   .3654084   .0558364     6.54   0.000     .2559711    .4748456
                          |
                    _cons |   14.89352   2.493197     5.97   0.000     10.00694     19.7801
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Model |    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
           . |  30028   -17362.42   -16313.23     27     32680.46    32904.83
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see [R] BIC note

. estimates store mod2A

. 
. * Figure D.1, left panel 
. estimates restore mod2A
(results mod2A are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=(0 1) alignedCF=(-1.7(.2)1.7) ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 c
> ivil_rights=0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.635 year=1991 circuit=8)

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =      30028
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : alignedCF       =        -1.7
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : alignedCF       =        -1.7
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

3._at        : alignedCF       =        -1.5
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

4._at        : alignedCF       =        -1.5
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

5._at        : alignedCF       =        -1.3
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

6._at        : alignedCF       =        -1.3
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

7._at        : alignedCF       =        -1.1
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

8._at        : alignedCF       =        -1.1
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

9._at        : alignedCF       =         -.9
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

10._at       : alignedCF       =         -.9
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

11._at       : alignedCF       =         -.7
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

12._at       : alignedCF       =         -.7
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

13._at       : alignedCF       =         -.5
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

14._at       : alignedCF       =         -.5
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

15._at       : alignedCF       =         -.3
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

16._at       : alignedCF       =         -.3
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

17._at       : alignedCF       =         -.1
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

18._at       : alignedCF       =         -.1
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

19._at       : alignedCF       =          .1
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

20._at       : alignedCF       =          .1
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

21._at       : alignedCF       =          .3
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

22._at       : alignedCF       =          .3
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

23._at       : alignedCF       =          .5
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

24._at       : alignedCF       =          .5
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

25._at       : alignedCF       =          .7
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

26._at       : alignedCF       =          .7
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

27._at       : alignedCF       =          .9
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

28._at       : alignedCF       =          .9
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

29._at       : alignedCF       =         1.1
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

30._at       : alignedCF       =         1.1
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

31._at       : alignedCF       =         1.3
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

32._at       : alignedCF       =         1.3
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

33._at       : alignedCF       =         1.5
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

34._at       : alignedCF       =         1.5
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

35._at       : alignedCF       =         1.7
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

36._at       : alignedCF       =         1.7
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .2996099   .0119602    25.05   0.000     .2761684    .3230514
          2  |    .200772   .0210415     9.54   0.000     .1595314    .2420126
          3  |   .2800074   .0110689    25.30   0.000     .2583127    .3017021
          4  |   .1948508   .0188591    10.33   0.000     .1578877    .2318139
          5  |   .2610485   .0102287    25.52   0.000     .2410006    .2810965
          6  |   .1890371   .0168089    11.25   0.000     .1560923    .2219819
          7  |   .2427722   .0094469    25.70   0.000     .2242567    .2612878
          8  |   .1833315   .0149105    12.30   0.000     .1541074    .2125556
          9  |   .2252116   .0087291    25.80   0.000     .2081029    .2423204
         10  |   .1777345   .0131907    13.47   0.000     .1518812    .2035878
         11  |    .208394   .0080794    25.79   0.000     .1925587    .2242293
         12  |   .1722465   .0116851    14.74   0.000     .1493442    .1951489
         13  |   .1923407   .0074996    25.65   0.000     .1776418    .2070396
         14  |   .1668679   .0104392    15.98   0.000     .1464074    .1873284
         15  |   .1770672   .0069893    25.33   0.000     .1633684     .190766
         16  |   .1615988   .0095051    17.00   0.000     .1429692    .1802285
         17  |   .1625832   .0065458    24.84   0.000     .1497537    .1754128
         18  |   .1564395   .0089287    17.52   0.000     .1389396    .1739393
         19  |    .148893    .006164    24.16   0.000     .1368118    .1609742
         20  |   .1513897   .0087297    17.34   0.000     .1342799    .1684996
         21  |   .1359953   .0058368    23.30   0.000     .1245554    .1474353
         22  |   .1464496   .0088854    16.48   0.000     .1290345    .1638647
         23  |   .1238843    .005556    22.30   0.000     .1129948    .1347737
         24  |   .1416189   .0093345    15.17   0.000     .1233235    .1599142
         25  |    .112549   .0053122    21.19   0.000     .1021372    .1229608
         26  |   .1368973   .0099991    13.69   0.000     .1172994    .1564951
         27  |   .1019747   .0050967    20.01   0.000     .0919854     .111964
         28  |   .1322844   .0108057    12.24   0.000     .1111056    .1534632
         29  |   .0921425   .0049008    18.80   0.000     .0825371    .1017479
         30  |   .1277798   .0116957    10.93   0.000     .1048565     .150703
         31  |   .0830303   .0047174    17.60   0.000     .0737844    .0922763
         32  |   .1233829   .0126262     9.77   0.000     .0986361    .1481297
         33  |   .0746131   .0045404    16.43   0.000     .0657141    .0835122
         34  |   .1190931   .0135667     8.78   0.000     .0925029    .1456834
         35  |   .0668634   .0043653    15.32   0.000     .0583075    .0754192
         36  |   .1149098   .0144964     7.93   0.000     .0864974    .1433221
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, dydx(alignedCF) at(sameAddress=(0 1) ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rig
> hts=0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.635 year=1991 circuit=8)

Average marginal effects                          Number of obs   =      30028
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : alignedCF

1._at        : sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
alignedCF    |
         _at |
          1  |   -.066759   .0033875   -19.71   0.000    -.0733984   -.0601196
          2  |  -.0250113   .0089607    -2.79   0.005    -.0425739   -.0074486
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix b = r(table)

. di (b[1,1] - (b[1,2]))
-.04174773

. ** z-test of difference between two marginal effects
. di (b[1,1] - (b[1,2]))/sqrt((b[2,1]^2)+(b[2,2]^2))
-4.3579655

. ** p-value for z-test statistic
. di 2*(1 - normal(abs((b[1,1] - (b[1,2]))/sqrt((b[2,1]^2)+(b[2,2]^2)))))
.00001313

. matrix drop b 

. 
. 
. ** Moedl 6: Matched Data
. probit revVote c.alignedCF##c.sameAddress ideoLC i.panType qualIndex_LC3 sameLS DJdesig priorJud civil_rights habeas fem
> ale_LC minority_LC caseload100 year i.circuit [iweight=cem_weightsCF]

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -11383.173  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -10568.965  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -10563.344  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -10563.342  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -10563.342  

Probit regression                                 Number of obs   =      21260
                                                  LR chi2(26)     =    1639.66
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -10563.342                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0720

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  revVote |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                alignedCF |  -.2396429   .0166073   -14.43   0.000    -.2721927   -.2070931
              sameAddress |  -.0395449    .028445    -1.39   0.164    -.0952962    .0162064
                          |
c.alignedCF#c.sameAddress |   .1251318   .0418466     2.99   0.003     .0431138    .2071497
                          |
                   ideoLC |  -.0042706   .0202769    -0.21   0.833    -.0440126    .0354715
                          |
                  panType |
   Split Panel, Majority  |   -.009354   .0239043    -0.39   0.696    -.0562056    .0374976
   Split Panel, Minority  |  -.0649916   .0274323    -2.37   0.018    -.1187579   -.0112252
                          |
            qualIndex_LC3 |    .012496   .0083477     1.50   0.134    -.0038652    .0288572
                   sameLS |   .0196505   .0350214     0.56   0.575    -.0489901    .0882911
                  DJdesig |  -.0388073   .0606735    -0.64   0.522    -.1577251    .0801106
                 priorJud |  -.1402877   .0263174    -5.33   0.000    -.1918688   -.0887067
             civil_rights |   .3986344   .0224306    17.77   0.000     .3546712    .4425976
                   habeas |   .1581079   .0409375     3.86   0.000     .0778718     .238344
                female_LC |   .0209494   .0354908     0.59   0.555    -.0486114    .0905101
              minority_LC |   .1401029   .0314448     4.46   0.000     .0784723    .2017335
              caseload100 |   .0475192   .0181449     2.62   0.009     .0119559    .0830825
                     year |   -.013016   .0015857    -8.21   0.000    -.0161239   -.0099082
                          |
                  circuit |
                  Second  |   .3949831   .0451405     8.75   0.000     .3065094    .4834568
                   Third  |   .9020104   .0441518    20.43   0.000     .8154744    .9885465
                  Fourth  |   .4918593   .0606309     8.11   0.000     .3730249    .6106937
                   Fifth  |   .2858172   .0529491     5.40   0.000     .1820388    .3895957
                   Sixth  |   .4605432   .0507751     9.07   0.000     .3610259    .5600606
                 Seventh  |   .0226702   .0354456     0.64   0.522    -.0468018    .0921423
                  Eighth  |  -.0414569   .0416955    -0.99   0.320    -.1231786    .0402648
                   Ninth  |   .4536592   .0432801    10.48   0.000     .3688317    .5384868
                   Tenth  |   .3490265   .0510459     6.84   0.000     .2489784    .4490745
                Eleventh  |   .3930738   .0810278     4.85   0.000     .2342623    .5518853
                          |
                    _cons |   24.78903   3.123153     7.94   0.000     18.66777     30.9103
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Model |    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
           . |  21260   -11383.17   -10563.34     27     21180.68    21395.73
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see [R] BIC note

. estimates store mod2M

. 
. * Figure D.1, right panel
. estimates restore mod2M 
(results mod2M are active now)

. margins, at(sameAddress=(0 1) alignedCF=(-1.7(.2)1.7) ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 c
> ivil_rights=0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.635 year=1991 circuit=8)

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =      21260
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : alignedCF       =        -1.7
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : alignedCF       =        -1.7
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

3._at        : alignedCF       =        -1.5
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

4._at        : alignedCF       =        -1.5
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

5._at        : alignedCF       =        -1.3
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

6._at        : alignedCF       =        -1.3
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

7._at        : alignedCF       =        -1.1
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

8._at        : alignedCF       =        -1.1
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

9._at        : alignedCF       =         -.9
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

10._at       : alignedCF       =         -.9
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

11._at       : alignedCF       =         -.7
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

12._at       : alignedCF       =         -.7
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

13._at       : alignedCF       =         -.5
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

14._at       : alignedCF       =         -.5
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

15._at       : alignedCF       =         -.3
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

16._at       : alignedCF       =         -.3
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

17._at       : alignedCF       =         -.1
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

18._at       : alignedCF       =         -.1
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

19._at       : alignedCF       =          .1
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

20._at       : alignedCF       =          .1
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

21._at       : alignedCF       =          .3
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

22._at       : alignedCF       =          .3
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

23._at       : alignedCF       =          .5
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

24._at       : alignedCF       =          .5
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

25._at       : alignedCF       =          .7
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

26._at       : alignedCF       =          .7
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

27._at       : alignedCF       =          .9
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

28._at       : alignedCF       =          .9
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

29._at       : alignedCF       =         1.1
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

30._at       : alignedCF       =         1.1
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

31._at       : alignedCF       =         1.3
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

32._at       : alignedCF       =         1.3
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

33._at       : alignedCF       =         1.5
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

34._at       : alignedCF       =         1.5
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

35._at       : alignedCF       =         1.7
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

36._at       : alignedCF       =         1.7
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .2665258   .0150738    17.68   0.000     .2369816    .2960699
          2  |   .1906174   .0215194     8.86   0.000     .1484402    .2327946
          3  |   .2510201   .0139871    17.95   0.000     .2236059    .2784343
          4  |   .1844527   .0194026     9.51   0.000     .1464242    .2224812
          5  |   .2360052   .0129755    18.19   0.000     .2105738    .2614367
          6  |   .1784135   .0174312    10.24   0.000      .144249     .212578
          7  |    .221499    .012045    18.39   0.000     .1978913    .2451068
          8  |   .1725005   .0156235    11.04   0.000      .141879    .2031219
          9  |   .2075164   .0112002    18.53   0.000     .1855645    .2294683
         10  |   .1667139    .014003    11.91   0.000     .1392686    .1941593
         11  |   .1940694   .0104438    18.58   0.000     .1735999    .2145389
         12  |   .1610542   .0125987    12.78   0.000     .1363612    .1857471
         13  |   .1811672   .0097766    18.53   0.000     .1620054     .200329
         14  |   .1555213    .011444    13.59   0.000     .1330914    .1779512
         15  |    .168816   .0091969    18.36   0.000     .1507904    .1868416
         16  |   .1501153   .0105725    14.20   0.000     .1293935    .1708371
         17  |   .1570195   .0087005    18.05   0.000     .1399668    .1740721
         18  |    .144836   .0100093    14.47   0.000     .1252182    .1644538
         19  |   .1457786   .0082808    17.60   0.000     .1295484    .1620087
         20  |   .1396833   .0097596    14.31   0.000     .1205547    .1588118
         21  |   .1350917   .0079293    17.04   0.000     .1195506    .1506328
         22  |   .1346566   .0098024    13.74   0.000     .1154442    .1538689
         23  |   .1249548   .0076356    16.36   0.000     .1099893    .1399203
         24  |   .1297554   .0100924    12.86   0.000     .1099748    .1495361
         25  |   .1153617   .0073889    15.61   0.000     .1008797    .1298437
         26  |   .1249793   .0105721    11.82   0.000     .1042583    .1457002
         27  |    .106304   .0071782    14.81   0.000     .0922349    .1203731
         28  |   .1203273   .0111846    10.76   0.000     .0984059    .1422486
         29  |   .0977715   .0069932    13.98   0.000     .0840651    .1114778
         30  |   .1157986   .0118806     9.75   0.000      .092513    .1390842
         31  |   .0897521   .0068245    13.15   0.000     .0763764    .1031278
         32  |   .1113923   .0126216     8.83   0.000     .0866544    .1361302
         33  |   .0822323   .0066643    12.34   0.000     .0691705    .0952941
         34  |   .1071074   .0133786     8.01   0.000     .0808858     .133329
         35  |   .0751971   .0065063    11.56   0.000      .062445    .0879492
         36  |   .1029426   .0141306     7.29   0.000     .0752471    .1306381
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, dydx(alignedCF) at(sameAddress=(0 1) ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rig
> hts=0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.635 year=1991 circuit=8)

Average marginal effects                          Number of obs   =      21260
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : alignedCF

1._at        : sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
alignedCF    |
         _at |
          1  |   -.055837    .004356   -12.82   0.000    -.0643746   -.0472994
          2  |  -.0256815   .0087387    -2.94   0.003    -.0428091   -.0085539
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix b = r(table)

. di (b[1,1] - (b[1,2]))
-.03015553

. ** z-test of difference between two marginal effects
. di (b[1,1] - (b[1,2]))/sqrt((b[2,1]^2)+(b[2,2]^2))
-3.0883704

. ** p-value for z-test statistic
. di 2*(1 - normal(abs((b[1,1] - (b[1,2]))/sqrt((b[2,1]^2)+(b[2,2]^2)))))
.00201257

. matrix drop b 

. 
. 
. *** Appendix E
. 
. ** Discussion in text
. count if sameCity == 1 & sameAddress == 0
  431

. di 431/35175
.01225302

. count if sameCity == 1
 4109

. di 431/4109
.1048917

. 
. *** Table E.1 and data for Figure E.1
. ** Model 7: All Data
. probit revVote c.aligned##c.sameCity ideoLC i.panType qualIndex_LC3 sameLS DJdesig priorJud civil_rights habeas female_L
> C minority_LC caseload100 year i.circuit 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -20327.347  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -19286.177  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -19280.645  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -19280.644  

Probit regression                                 Number of obs   =      35175
                                                  LR chi2(26)     =    2093.41
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -19280.644                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0515

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               revVote |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
               aligned |  -.5086704   .0231722   -21.95   0.000    -.5540871   -.4632537
              sameCity |   .0052697   .0239847     0.22   0.826    -.0417394    .0522788
                       |
  c.aligned#c.sameCity |   .4809197   .0637582     7.54   0.000     .3559558    .6058835
                       |
                ideoLC |   -.004715   .0149554    -0.32   0.753    -.0340271    .0245971
                       |
               panType |
Split Panel, Majority  |   .0095106   .0175505     0.54   0.588    -.0248877    .0439088
Split Panel, Minority  |   .0158139   .0204893     0.77   0.440    -.0243443    .0559722
                       |
         qualIndex_LC3 |    .012138   .0063417     1.91   0.056    -.0002914    .0245675
                sameLS |  -.0277714   .0285644    -0.97   0.331    -.0837566    .0282139
               DJdesig |  -.0250502   .0254541    -0.98   0.325    -.0749392    .0248389
              priorJud |  -.0441086   .0172675    -2.55   0.011    -.0779522    -.010265
          civil_rights |   .4153119   .0170941    24.30   0.000     .3818082    .4488157
                habeas |   .0805784   .0301454     2.67   0.008     .0214946    .1396623
             female_LC |  -.0685413   .0274421    -2.50   0.013    -.1223269   -.0147558
           minority_LC |   .1713873   .0243679     7.03   0.000     .1236271    .2191475
           caseload100 |   .0375826   .0120603     3.12   0.002     .0139448    .0612205
                  year |  -.0063336   .0011247    -5.63   0.000     -.008538   -.0041292
                       |
               circuit |
               Second  |   .3323084   .0433147     7.67   0.000     .2474132    .4172037
                Third  |   .6937304   .0475782    14.58   0.000     .6004789    .7869818
               Fourth  |   .3488349   .0475079     7.34   0.000     .2557212    .4419487
                Fifth  |   .2364367    .041537     5.69   0.000     .1550257    .3178477
                Sixth  |   .3796739   .0411915     9.22   0.000       .29894    .4604077
              Seventh  |  -.0311935   .0397503    -0.78   0.433    -.1091027    .0467157
               Eighth  |   -.067789   .0390229    -1.74   0.082    -.1442726    .0086945
                Ninth  |   .3534361   .0387827     9.11   0.000     .2774234    .4294487
                Tenth  |   .2237105   .0408918     5.47   0.000      .143564     .303857
             Eleventh  |   .3253784   .0522531     6.23   0.000     .2229642    .4277926
                       |
                 _cons |   11.50454    2.21559     5.19   0.000      7.16206    15.84701
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Model |    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
           . |  35175   -20327.35   -19280.64     27     38615.29    38843.93
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see [R] BIC note

. estimates store mod3A

. 
. ** Matching Procedure Using Same City (instead of Same Address)
. cem fjcid(#0) aligned(#6) if sameCity != ., treatment(sameCity) 

Matching Summary:
-----------------
Number of strata: 1931
Number of matched strata: 547

               0      1
      All  31066   4109
  Matched  21608   4067
Unmatched   9458     42


Multivariate L1 distance: .02794401

Univariate imbalance:

              L1     mean      min      25%      50%      75%      max
  fjcid  1.5e-14  8.7e-11        0        0        0        0        0
aligned    .0083  -.00083        0        0   -.0245        0        0

. tab cem_matched

cem_matched |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |      9,500       27.01       27.01
          1 |     25,675       72.99      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |     35,175      100.00

. rename cem_weights cem_weightsCity

. drop cem_strata cem_matched

. 
. * Figure E.1, left panel
. estimates restore mod3A
(results mod3A are active now)

. margins, at(sameCity=(0 1) aligned=(-.8(.2).8) ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_ri
> ghts=0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.635 year=1991 circuit=8)

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =      35175
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         -.8
               sameCity        =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         -.8
               sameCity        =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

3._at        : aligned         =         -.6
               sameCity        =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

4._at        : aligned         =         -.6
               sameCity        =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

5._at        : aligned         =         -.4
               sameCity        =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

6._at        : aligned         =         -.4
               sameCity        =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

7._at        : aligned         =         -.2
               sameCity        =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

8._at        : aligned         =         -.2
               sameCity        =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

9._at        : aligned         =           0
               sameCity        =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

10._at       : aligned         =           0
               sameCity        =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

11._at       : aligned         =          .2
               sameCity        =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

12._at       : aligned         =          .2
               sameCity        =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

13._at       : aligned         =          .4
               sameCity        =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

14._at       : aligned         =          .4
               sameCity        =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

15._at       : aligned         =          .6
               sameCity        =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

16._at       : aligned         =          .6
               sameCity        =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

17._at       : aligned         =          .8
               sameCity        =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

18._at       : aligned         =          .8
               sameCity        =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .2616227   .0100353    26.07   0.000     .2419538    .2812915
          2  |   .1543825   .0134271    11.50   0.000     .1280659     .180699
          3  |   .2296242    .008594    26.72   0.000     .2127803    .2464682
          4  |   .1530672      .0112    13.67   0.000     .1311157    .1750187
          5  |   .1999446   .0073894    27.06   0.000     .1854617    .2144276
          6  |   .1517593   .0093529    16.23   0.000     .1334279    .1700907
          7  |    .172699   .0064374    26.83   0.000      .160082    .1853161
          8  |   .1504589   .0081151    18.54   0.000     .1345536    .1663642
          9  |   .1479451   .0057269    25.83   0.000     .1367206    .1591697
         10  |   .1491659    .007748    19.25   0.000     .1339801    .1643517
         11  |   .1256864   .0052186    24.08   0.000     .1154581    .1359147
         12  |   .1478803   .0083351    17.74   0.000     .1315439    .1642168
         13  |   .1058773   .0048538    21.81   0.000     .0963641    .1153905
         14  |   .1466022   .0096776    15.15   0.000     .1276345      .16557
         15  |   .0884295   .0045705    19.35   0.000     .0794716    .0973875
         16  |   .1453316   .0114916    12.65   0.000     .1228085    .1678547
         17  |   .0732197    .004318    16.96   0.000     .0647566    .0816829
         18  |   .1440683   .0135707    10.62   0.000     .1174703    .1706664
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, dydx(aligned) at(sameCity=(0 1) ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rights=0
>  habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.635 year=1991 circuit=8)

Average marginal effects                          Number of obs   =      35175
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : aligned

1._at        : sameCity        =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : sameCity        =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
aligned      |
         _at |
          1  |  -.1163939    .006011   -19.36   0.000    -.1281753   -.1046125
          2  |  -.0064425   .0138108    -0.47   0.641    -.0335111    .0206261
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix b = r(table)

. ** Difference between marginal effects
. di (b[1,1] - b[1,2])
-.10995143

. ** z-test of difference between two marginal effects
. di (b[1,1] - (b[1,2]))/sqrt((b[2,1]^2)+(b[2,2]^2))
-7.2998245

. ** p-value for z-test statistic
. di 2*(1 - normal(abs((b[1,1] - (b[1,2]))/sqrt((b[2,1]^2)+(b[2,2]^2)))))
2.882e-13

. matrix drop b 

. 
. *** Table E.1 and data for Figure E.1
. ** Model 8: Matched Data
. probit revVote c.aligned##c.sameCity ideoLC i.panType qualIndex_LC3 sameLS DJdesig priorJud civil_rights habeas female_L
> C minority_LC caseload100 year i.circuit [iweight=cem_weightsCity]

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -15051.239  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -14371.661  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood =  -14369.18  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =  -14369.18  

Probit regression                                 Number of obs   =      25675
                                                  LR chi2(26)     =    1364.12
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood =  -14369.18                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0453

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               revVote |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
               aligned |  -.1735958   .0262685    -6.61   0.000    -.2250811   -.1221106
              sameCity |   -.047744   .0240911    -1.98   0.048    -.0949617   -.0005262
                       |
  c.aligned#c.sameCity |   .1363718   .0650488     2.10   0.036     .0088784    .2638652
                       |
                ideoLC |   .0038944   .0174051     0.22   0.823    -.0302189    .0380078
                       |
               panType |
Split Panel, Majority  |  -.0244544   .0204009    -1.20   0.231    -.0644394    .0155305
Split Panel, Minority  |  -.0231247   .0235076    -0.98   0.325    -.0691987    .0229493
                       |
         qualIndex_LC3 |   .0235851   .0072763     3.24   0.001     .0093238    .0378464
                sameLS |   .0098031   .0300038     0.33   0.744    -.0490032    .0686094
               DJdesig |  -.0191752   .0494565    -0.39   0.698    -.1161081    .0777577
              priorJud |   -.098458   .0221492    -4.45   0.000    -.1418695   -.0550464
          civil_rights |   .3767627   .0199671    18.87   0.000     .3376279    .4158975
                habeas |   .1431266   .0322135     4.44   0.000     .0799894    .2062639
             female_LC |  -.0278624    .033626    -0.83   0.407    -.0937683    .0380434
           minority_LC |   .1410312   .0292155     4.83   0.000     .0837699    .1982925
           caseload100 |   .0651635   .0151919     4.29   0.000     .0353879    .0949392
                  year |  -.0104907   .0013153    -7.98   0.000    -.0130686   -.0079127
                       |
               circuit |
               Second  |   .1564255   .0369119     4.24   0.000     .0840795    .2287715
                Third  |    .719913   .0414732    17.36   0.000     .6386271    .8011989
               Fourth  |   .2944086   .0558327     5.27   0.000     .1849785    .4038388
                Fifth  |   .1031531   .0441883     2.33   0.020     .0165456    .1897607
                Sixth  |   .3401714   .0478512     7.11   0.000     .2463847    .4339581
              Seventh  |  -.1030185   .0324046    -3.18   0.001    -.1665303   -.0395067
               Eighth  |  -.1709201   .0399795    -4.28   0.000    -.2492785   -.0925618
                Ninth  |   .3325838   .0374777     8.87   0.000     .2591289    .4060387
                Tenth  |   .2155304   .0416417     5.18   0.000     .1339142    .2971465
             Eleventh  |   .2630226   .0575564     4.57   0.000     .1502142    .3758311
                       |
                 _cons |   19.81738   2.586828     7.66   0.000     14.74729    24.88747
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Model |    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
           . |  25675   -15051.24   -14369.18     27     28792.36     29012.5
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see [R] BIC note

. estimates store mod3m

. 
. * Figure E.1, right panel
. estimates restore mod3m
(results mod3m are active now)

. margins, at(sameCity=(0 1) aligned=(-.8(.2).8) ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_ri
> ghts=0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.635 year=1991 circuit=8)

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =      25675
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         -.8
               sameCity        =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : aligned         =         -.8
               sameCity        =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

3._at        : aligned         =         -.6
               sameCity        =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

4._at        : aligned         =         -.6
               sameCity        =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

5._at        : aligned         =         -.4
               sameCity        =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

6._at        : aligned         =         -.4
               sameCity        =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

7._at        : aligned         =         -.2
               sameCity        =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

8._at        : aligned         =         -.2
               sameCity        =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

9._at        : aligned         =           0
               sameCity        =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

10._at       : aligned         =           0
               sameCity        =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

11._at       : aligned         =          .2
               sameCity        =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

12._at       : aligned         =          .2
               sameCity        =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

13._at       : aligned         =          .4
               sameCity        =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

14._at       : aligned         =          .4
               sameCity        =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

15._at       : aligned         =          .6
               sameCity        =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

16._at       : aligned         =          .6
               sameCity        =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

17._at       : aligned         =          .8
               sameCity        =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

18._at       : aligned         =          .8
               sameCity        =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .1831866   .0105299    17.40   0.000     .1625484    .2038249
          2  |   .1445429   .0138229    10.46   0.000     .1174505    .1716354
          3  |   .1741205   .0096025    18.13   0.000        .1553    .1929409
          4  |   .1428564    .011823    12.08   0.000     .1196837     .166029
          5  |   .1653448   .0088686    18.64   0.000     .1479626    .1827269
          6  |   .1411832   .0102187    13.82   0.000     .1211549    .1612114
          7  |   .1568605   .0083355    18.82   0.000     .1405231    .1731978
          8  |   .1395233   .0091804    15.20   0.000       .12153    .1575166
          9  |   .1486678       .008    18.58   0.000      .132988    .1643475
         10  |   .1378768   .0088693    15.55   0.000     .1204932    .1552604
         11  |   .1407662   .0078458    17.94   0.000     .1253886    .1561437
         12  |   .1362435   .0093216    14.62   0.000     .1179735    .1545136
         13  |   .1331545   .0078454    16.97   0.000     .1177779    .1485312
         14  |   .1346236   .0104064    12.94   0.000     .1142273    .1550199
         15  |    .125831   .0079641    15.80   0.000     .1102216    .1414405
         16  |   .1330169   .0119252    11.15   0.000     .1096439      .15639
         17  |   .1187932   .0081667    14.55   0.000     .1027869    .1347996
         18  |   .1314235   .0137114     9.59   0.000     .1045497    .1582972
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, dydx(aligned) at(sameCity=(0 1) ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_rights=0
>  habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.635 year=1991 circuit=8)

Average marginal effects                          Number of obs   =      25675
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : aligned

1._at        : sameCity        =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

2._at        : sameCity        =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991
               circuit         =           8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
aligned      |
         _at |
          1  |  -.0404689   .0062705    -6.45   0.000    -.0527588   -.0281789
          2  |    -.00821   .0132081    -0.62   0.534    -.0340973    .0176773
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix b = r(table)

. ** Difference between marginal effects
. di (b[1,1] - b[1,2])
-.03225889

. ** z-test of difference between two marginal effects
. di (b[1,1] - (b[1,2]))/sqrt((b[2,1]^2)+(b[2,2]^2))
-2.2063488

. ** p-value for z-test statistic
. di 2*(1 - normal(abs((b[1,1] - (b[1,2]))/sqrt((b[2,1]^2)+(b[2,2]^2)))))
.02735958

. matrix drop b 

. 
. 
. *** Main Model with no circuit fixed effects (robustness check discussed in the text of the article)
. ** Full Data
. probit revVote c.aligned##c.sameAddress ideoLC i.panType qualIndex_LC3 sameLS DJdesig priorJud civil_rights habeas femal
> e_LC minority_LC caseload100 year 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -20327.347  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -19600.048  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -19598.053  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -19598.053  

Probit regression                                 Number of obs   =      35175
                                                  LR chi2(16)     =    1458.59
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -19598.053                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0359

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                revVote |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                aligned |  -.5135669   .0227358   -22.59   0.000    -.5581282   -.4690057
            sameAddress |  -.0311863   .0245944    -1.27   0.205    -.0793904    .0170178
                        |
c.aligned#c.sameAddress |   .5114879   .0661492     7.73   0.000     .3818378     .641138
                        |
                 ideoLC |  -.0043058   .0148287    -0.29   0.772    -.0333694    .0247579
                        |
                panType |
 Split Panel, Majority  |   .0099643   .0173351     0.57   0.565    -.0240119    .0439406
 Split Panel, Minority  |   .0152616   .0202709     0.75   0.452    -.0244686    .0549918
                        |
          qualIndex_LC3 |   .0179812   .0061478     2.92   0.003     .0059317    .0300307
                 sameLS |  -.0461088   .0281672    -1.64   0.102    -.1013155    .0090978
                DJdesig |  -.0120193   .0252681    -0.48   0.634    -.0615439    .0375053
               priorJud |  -.0126522   .0167834    -0.75   0.451     -.045547    .0202427
           civil_rights |   .4280819   .0168545    25.40   0.000     .3950478    .4611161
                 habeas |    .090163   .0298251     3.02   0.003     .0317068    .1486192
              female_LC |  -.0694656   .0271521    -2.56   0.011    -.1226828   -.0162485
            minority_LC |   .2052243   .0240013     8.55   0.000     .1581826    .2522661
            caseload100 |   .0998777   .0088276    11.31   0.000     .0825758    .1171795
                   year |  -.0126638   .0008867   -14.28   0.000    -.0144018   -.0109259
                  _cons |   24.12564   1.743988    13.83   0.000     20.70748    27.54379
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Model |    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
           . |  35175   -20327.35   -19598.05     17     39230.11    39374.06
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see [R] BIC note

. margins, at(sameAddress=(0 1) aligned=(-.8(.2).8) ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil
> _rights=0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.635 year=1991)

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =      35175
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         -.8
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

2._at        : aligned         =         -.8
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

3._at        : aligned         =         -.6
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

4._at        : aligned         =         -.6
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

5._at        : aligned         =         -.4
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

6._at        : aligned         =         -.4
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

7._at        : aligned         =         -.2
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

8._at        : aligned         =         -.2
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

9._at        : aligned         =           0
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

10._at       : aligned         =           0
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

11._at       : aligned         =          .2
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

12._at       : aligned         =          .2
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

13._at       : aligned         =          .4
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

14._at       : aligned         =          .4
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

15._at       : aligned         =          .6
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

16._at       : aligned         =          .6
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

17._at       : aligned         =          .8
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

18._at       : aligned         =          .8
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .3548008   .0089231    39.76   0.000     .3373117    .3722898
          2  |   .2081755   .0155874    13.36   0.000     .1776248    .2387263
          3  |   .3173562    .007379    43.01   0.000     .3028936    .3318187
          4  |   .2080563   .0126136    16.49   0.000     .1833341    .2327786
          5  |   .2816935   .0060783    46.34   0.000     .2697802    .2936068
          6  |   .2079372   .0100386    20.71   0.000     .1882619    .2276124
          7  |    .248084   .0051119    48.53   0.000     .2380648    .2581032
          8  |   .2078181   .0082415    25.22   0.000      .191665    .2239711
          9  |   .2167417   .0045385    47.76   0.000     .2078464    .2256369
         10  |    .207699   .0077781    26.70   0.000     .1924541    .2229438
         11  |     .18782   .0043319    43.36   0.000     .1793297    .1963103
         12  |   .2075799   .0088574    23.44   0.000     .1902198    .2249401
         13  |   .1614119   .0043727    36.91   0.000     .1528416    .1699822
         14  |   .2074609   .0110332    18.80   0.000     .1858362    .2290857
         15  |   .1375517   .0045148    30.47   0.000     .1287029    .1464006
         16  |    .207342   .0137944    15.03   0.000     .1803055    .2343785
         17  |   .1162197   .0046484    25.00   0.000     .1071091    .1253304
         18  |   .2072231   .0168541    12.30   0.000     .1741897    .2402564
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. marginsplot, xdimension(aligned)

  Variables that uniquely identify margins: sameAddress aligned

. margins, dydx(aligned) at(sameAddress=(0 1) ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_right
> s=0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.635 year=1991 )

Average marginal effects                          Number of obs   =      35175
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : aligned

1._at        : sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

2._at        : sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
aligned      |
         _at |
          1  |  -.1486142   .0066977   -22.19   0.000    -.1617414    -.135487
          2  |  -.0005953   .0178104    -0.03   0.973     -.035503    .0343124
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix b = r(table)

. ** Difference between marginal effects
. di (b[1,1] - b[1,2])
-.14801887

. ** z-test of difference between two marginal effects
. di (b[1,1] - (b[1,2]))/sqrt((b[2,1]^2)+(b[2,2]^2))
-7.7789655

. ** p-value for z-test statistic
. di 2*(1 - normal(abs((b[1,1] - (b[1,2]))/sqrt((b[2,1]^2)+(b[2,2]^2)))))
7.327e-15

. matrix drop b 

. 
. ** Matched Data
. probit revVote c.aligned##c.sameAddress ideoLC i.panType qualIndex_LC3 sameLS DJdesig priorJud civil_rights habeas femal
> e_LC minority_LC caseload100 year [iweight=cem_weightsMain]

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -14182.927  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood =  -13863.65  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -13863.122  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -13863.122  

Probit regression                                 Number of obs   =      24370
                                                  LR chi2(16)     =     639.61
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -13863.122                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0225

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                revVote |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                aligned |  -.1368869   .0264047    -5.18   0.000    -.1886391   -.0851347
            sameAddress |  -.0479195   .0251795    -1.90   0.057    -.0972704    .0014314
                        |
c.aligned#c.sameAddress |   .1381773   .0676568     2.04   0.041     .0055725    .2707822
                        |
                 ideoLC |  -.0055249   .0177198    -0.31   0.755    -.0402551    .0292053
                        |
                panType |
 Split Panel, Majority  |  -.0266595   .0206931    -1.29   0.198    -.0672174    .0138983
 Split Panel, Minority  |  -.0328091   .0238546    -1.38   0.169    -.0795632     .013945
                        |
          qualIndex_LC3 |   .0315101    .007268     4.34   0.000     .0172651    .0457552
                 sameLS |  -.0156049   .0297999    -0.52   0.601    -.0740116    .0428018
                DJdesig |   .0530573   .0507995     1.04   0.296     -.046508    .1526225
               priorJud |  -.0447835   .0216799    -2.07   0.039    -.0872752   -.0022917
           civil_rights |   .3859815   .0202302    19.08   0.000     .3463311    .4256319
                 habeas |   .1980238   .0321224     6.16   0.000      .135065    .2609825
              female_LC |  -.0112515   .0342447    -0.33   0.742    -.0783698    .0558668
            minority_LC |   .1694907   .0291626     5.81   0.000      .112333    .2266484
            caseload100 |   .1297322   .0126502    10.26   0.000     .1049382    .1545262
                   year |  -.0166293    .001115   -14.91   0.000    -.0188147    -.014444
                  _cons |   31.94464   2.188261    14.60   0.000     27.65573    36.23355
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Model |    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
           . |  24370   -14182.93   -13863.12     17     27760.24    27897.96
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see [R] BIC note

. margins, at(sameAddress=(0 1) aligned=(-.8(.2).8) ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil
> _rights=0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.635 year=1991 )

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =      24370
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()

1._at        : aligned         =         -.8
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

2._at        : aligned         =         -.8
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

3._at        : aligned         =         -.6
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

4._at        : aligned         =         -.6
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

5._at        : aligned         =         -.4
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

6._at        : aligned         =         -.4
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

7._at        : aligned         =         -.2
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

8._at        : aligned         =         -.2
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

9._at        : aligned         =           0
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

10._at       : aligned         =           0
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

11._at       : aligned         =          .2
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

12._at       : aligned         =          .2
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

13._at       : aligned         =          .4
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

14._at       : aligned         =          .4
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

15._at       : aligned         =          .6
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

16._at       : aligned         =          .6
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

17._at       : aligned         =          .8
               sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

18._at       : aligned         =          .8
               sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .2475711   .0086269    28.70   0.000     .2306626    .2644795
          2  |    .200282    .015566    12.87   0.000     .1697732    .2307907
          3  |   .2389977   .0073534    32.50   0.000     .2245852    .2534101
          4  |   .2003543   .0127099    15.76   0.000     .1754434    .2252652
          5  |   .2305892   .0063439    36.35   0.000     .2181554    .2430229
          6  |   .2004266   .0102614    19.53   0.000     .1803147    .2205386
          7  |   .2223486   .0056848    39.11   0.000     .2112066    .2334907
          8  |    .200499   .0085789    23.37   0.000     .1836846    .2173134
          9  |   .2142787   .0054469    39.34   0.000     .2036029    .2249545
         10  |   .2005714   .0081534    24.60   0.000      .184591    .2165517
         11  |   .2063818   .0056288    36.67   0.000     .1953495     .217414
         12  |   .2006437   .0091634    21.90   0.000     .1826837    .2186037
         13  |     .19866   .0061445    32.33   0.000     .1866169     .210703
         14  |   .2007161   .0112295    17.87   0.000     .1787067    .2227255
         15  |    .191115   .0068771    27.79   0.000      .177636     .204594
         16  |   .2007886   .0138892    14.46   0.000     .1735663    .2280108
         17  |   .1837484   .0077288    23.77   0.000     .1686002    .1988965
         18  |    .200861   .0168648    11.91   0.000     .1678065    .2339154
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. marginsplot, xdimension(aligned)

  Variables that uniquely identify margins: sameAddress aligned

. margins, dydx(aligned) at(sameAddress=(0 1) ideoLC=1 panType=1 qualIndex_LC3=2 sameLS=0 DJdesig=0 priorJud=0 civil_right
> s=0 habeas=0 female_LC=0 minority_LC=0 caseload100=2.635 year=1991 )

Average marginal effects                          Number of obs   =      24370
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(revVote), predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : aligned

1._at        : sameAddress     =           0
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

2._at        : sameAddress     =           1
               ideoLC          =           1
               panType         =           1
               qualIndex_~3    =           2
               sameLS          =           0
               DJdesig         =           0
               priorJud        =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               habeas          =           0
               female_LC       =           0
               minority_LC     =           0
               caseload100     =       2.635
               year            =        1991

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
aligned      |
         _at |
          1  |  -.0400724   .0077403    -5.18   0.000    -.0552432   -.0249017
          2  |   .0003619   .0175371     0.02   0.984    -.0340101    .0347339
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix b = r(table)

. ** Difference between marginal effects
. di (b[1,1] - b[1,2])
-.04043432

. ** z-test of difference between two marginal effects
. di (b[1,1] - (b[1,2]))/sqrt((b[2,1]^2)+(b[2,2]^2))
-2.1093289

. ** p-value for z-test statistic
. di 2*(1 - normal(abs((b[1,1] - (b[1,2]))/sqrt((b[2,1]^2)+(b[2,2]^2)))))
.0349162

. matrix drop b 

. 
. log close
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  /Users/rachaelhinkle/Dropbox/ElevatorEffect/Reversals/JOP_Replication_Data/NelsonHazeltonHinkle_JOP2020_repli
> cation.log
  log type:  text
 closed on:  22 Jun 2020, 12:02:09
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
